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Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet
Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots. A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC). Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea. When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust. However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:
Is Bitcoin money?
No. Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves: 1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own. As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get. You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there? 2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile. If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point: 3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away. For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast. On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad. One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy. If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due. Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.
BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in
Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense. Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run. See here Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well. Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money. Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand. Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control. It's also a national security risk... The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca. He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade. This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.
Currencies are based on trust
Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged? The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president. People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all. It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board. For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government." The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.
BTC is not gold
Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value. How do we know that? Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan. Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well. Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties: First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment. Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials. Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans. It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods. To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that. On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Means of Exchange: if people seriously start using BTC to buy pizzas, then this creates a real demand for the currency to accomplish the short-term exchanges. As we saw previously, I'm not personally sold on this one and it's currently a negligible fraction of overall demand.
Criminal uses: Probably the largest inbuilt advantage of BTC is that it's anonymous, and so a great way to launder money. Hacker gangs use BTC to demand ransom on cryptolocker type attacks because it's a shared way for an honest company to pay and for the criminals to receive money without going to jail.
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.
BTC is really risky
One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds. But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:
A critical software vulnerability is found in the BTC codebase, leading to a possible exploitation.
Xi Jinping decides he's had enough of rich people in China hiding their assets from him and bans BTC.
Some form of bank run takes hold for whatever reason. Because BTC wallets are uninsured, unlike regular banks, this compounds into a Black Tuesday style crash.
Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient
Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science. That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale. The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
BTC was estimated to use as much electricity as Belgium in 2019. It's hard to trace where the BTC mining comes from, but we can assume it has a huge carbon footprint.
A single transactions is necessarily expensive. A single transaction takes as much electricity as 800,000 VISA transactions, or watching 50,000 hours of youtube videos.
There is a large necessary tax on the transaction, since those checking the transaction extract a few BTC from it to be incentivized to do the work of checking it.
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
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Removed comments/submissions for /u/OverLeveraged14
Hi OverLeveraged14, you're not shadowbanned, but 97 of your most recent 105 comments/submissions were removed (either automatically or by human moderators).
ft8ds4z in CryptoCurrency on 07 Jun 20 (1pts):
bitcoin relies 100% on confirmation bias. everyone yells ''its amazing'' because they're financially biased, but they dont actually believe it. they just hope someone will pump their bags. to me the...
frm76ad in Crypto_com on 24 May 20 (1pts):
simply put, they dont support canadian banking and canadian dollars. at least yet. might change when they add debit card for canada since i would assume that will be denominated in CAD but i could...
i cant wait for 1000sat/byte as a standard when btc hits 100k$! its gon be great! i really dont care if 90% of my paycheck vanishes in a transaction fee cause ill hodl till i die! i already threw...
frjwzk9 in CryptoCurrency on 23 May 20 (1pts):
well, at least he's not shilling a scam this time i guess?
frjvori in CryptoCurrency on 23 May 20 (1pts):
people didnt expect that kind of bull run in 2016, at least no that i remember. there was some hype early on in 2017, specially because of ETH, i still cant tel wheter or not btc rode on eth's...
frjt8r7 in CryptoCurrency on 23 May 20 (1pts):
eth by far. bitcoin is racing towards a dead end and everyone knows it but choose to ignore it and scream moon all day long. its sad but true bitcoin cant sustain anymore growth and there's no plan...
frjr53k in technology on 23 May 20 (1pts):
how about let it fucking sink so it can be bought for a penny on the dollar? only thing this system is doing is promoting irresponsible business management because ''why take precautions or innovate...
frjq6q8 in technology on 23 May 20 (1pts):
the best way to make you gmail inbox safer is to use protonmail instead haha.
frjg2ez in CryptoCurrency on 23 May 20 (1pts):
i can attest to this. i did a piece that shows how 4mb block would HELP bitcoin adoption AND decentralization and was banned for promoting BCH, which i havent talked about once in all of my...
frjfwao in CryptoCurrency on 23 May 20 (1pts):
no, its means goldman needs a conference call to tel investors not to buy bitcoin.
frjfehq in CryptoCurrency on 23 May 20 (1pts):
proof of funds is the scummiest bullshit ever created. allows institutions to literally steal money from legitimate users who cant provide a proof. its easy for freshly earned money now that we know...
frjbtml in CryptoCurrency on 23 May 20 (1pts):
it doesnt really matter how much the fed prints, because it wont leave the fed without someone taking the loans, and nobody wants a loan right now. theses funds mainly exist in order to prevent the...
frgj543 in politics on 22 May 20 (1pts):
why? its not like he has issues routing a billion dollars of public funds over to Ukraine.
frggmty in CryptoCurrency on 22 May 20 (1pts):
''in a nutshell'' dont hang out in bitcoin or btc, bitcoin has gestapo mods and btc is salt all day long.
frfp692 in WhitePeopleTwitter on 22 May 20 (1pts):
just go gamble 100x till you make it, ez.
frfoe8c in LifeProTips on 22 May 20 (1pts):
Discord my friend, Discord.
free9l1 in CryptoCurrency on 22 May 20 (1pts):
fredual in CryptoCurrency on 22 May 20 (1pts):
dw bout it, everyone pays to learn in this space. some later than others. better take your loses early on rather than get your illusion of success shattered down the road.
frdpvm8 in CryptoCurrency on 21 May 20 (1pts):
all you had to do is claim you hex, for free. if you dont pay for something, how are you getting scammed? you have no clue who gave him that eth, for what purpose, and if they're okay with him...
frdo9tl in CryptoCurrency on 21 May 20 (1pts):
lets be honest, sending them to an exchange that has ''Fren with justin sun'' written all over it was not exactly his most genius moment.
frde4ag in CryptoCurrency on 21 May 20 (1pts):
folding is great but it honestly pisses me off at the same time. there is so much spare computing power owned by american companies and almost all of it is never put to use for folding, it should be...
frddkuy in CryptoCurrency on 21 May 20 (1pts):
''investing'' in crypto is honestly the wrong way to think about it. gambling is a much better term. at best you're all in on btc and you're hedging against fiat inflation, at worst you buy any...
frdcffn in CryptoCurrency on 21 May 20 (1pts):
that explains why you know nothing about it.
frdaz60 in CryptoCurrency on 21 May 20 (1pts):
doubtful. negative interest rates in a deflationary environment wont be a big deal. yall really seem to misunderstand how good the USD is at fucking you over. keep believing hyperinflation is gonna...
frdantd in CryptoCurrency on 21 May 20 (1pts):
you havent seen nothing yet my man. 2017 had fees up to 100$. its gonna happen again.
frcveyn in CryptoCurrency on 21 May 20 (1pts):
considering he thinks bitmex sells trader's fund on spot after they place a trade, its fair to say this guy doesnt know anything about anything.
frcn75e in CryptoCurrency on 21 May 20 (1pts):
this is the dumbest article ever made on crypto.
frcmmkz in CryptoCurrency on 21 May 20 (1pts):
you're an idiot.
frcgfqm in CryptoCurrency on 21 May 20 (1pts):
while i agree that bitcoin sucks as it is and needs a block size increase (4mb would be perfect for now and wouldnt change a damn thing about decentralization) bsv is garbage and bch too.
frcg7pc in CryptoCurrency on 21 May 20 (1pts):
those 3 pools are also made of thousands of individuals. its not the pools' hashrate. if they start messing with the network, that hashrate will leave fast as fuck.
frc3yb5 in CryptoCurrency on 21 May 20 (1pts):
yet only 5mil in liquidity. useless network.
frbyhp0 in CryptoCurrency on 21 May 20 (1pts):
btc blocks should be 4mb-8mb right now to keep in line with technological advancement since the 1mb block limit was implemented. prove me wrong. ill debate anyone. and before you ask, im a btc...
frbxj5j in CryptoCurrency on 21 May 20 (1pts):
opening the pandora's box for market manipulation is a bad thing for wallstreet. these's patterns are not exclusive to crypto, at all, and ''trapping'' and stop hunts has been done for decades. this...
fr8anz5 in CryptoCurrency on 20 May 20 (1pts):
honestly wouldnt be surprised. btc isnt going anywhere without scaling and ln is a cluster fuck for adoption.
fr64v2n in Bitcoin on 19 May 20 (1pts):
fr64mko in Bitcoin on 19 May 20 (1pts):
this is software or 3rd parties trapping people into having to use those fees.
fr649wf in CryptoCurrency on 19 May 20 (1pts):
that company is a fucking leech regardless how you look at it. trying to make itself relevant by attacking others. they arent doing anyone but themselves a favor. you can hate on XRP just as much as...
fr62m0n in Bitcoin on 19 May 20 (1pts):
this is absolute garbage propaganda to assume that nodes would drop out rather than upgrade. im so fucking tired of people pretending like buying a 400$ computer to run a node is a problem but...
fr61jya in Bitcoin on 19 May 20 (1pts):
supply is 18million, not 900/day. there's plenty to buy from. also if you are talking about paul tudor jones, he didnt buy a single bitcoin and said so himself that he would only be playing futures...
fr60yqv in Bitcoin on 19 May 20 (1pts):
store of value is NOT a use case, and bitcoin is NOT widely adopted.
fr5yqcw in Bitcoin on 19 May 20 (1pts):
" not really looking for financial advice " maybe you should.
Weekly Update: 10k ParJar users, PAR on Mercatox, BOMB Announcement, FTM on OKEx... – 28 Jun - 4 Jul'19
Hiya folks! With this update we will be totally caught up with the latest Parachute weekly. Whew! Told ya it will be fun. Thanks for sticking by. Here’s your week at Parachute (28 Jun – 4 Jul’19): ParJar crossed 10k users this week (with 120k total transactions till now). The growth is real! PAR got listed on Mercatox as well. The first Cex listing. Woot! Remember how well researched Benjamin’s BOMB metrics reports were? You are in for a treat. He made a deep dive report on the PAR token metrics as well. Enjoy! CoinsOnFire’s review of Parachute is out too. Have a read! Cap’s Parachute journey article was translated to Spanish by Roberto. The milestone items for July are pargas, new projects, more coverage. Cap announced a competition to design a logo for the Parachute News/Announcement channel. Tons of solid entries. 300k PAR were given out to the top picks. Pedro’s logo was simple yet clear in its message and was the winner of the comp with it becoming the Ann channel logo. Great work on the logos, guys! These look super fresh Ice and Chris rocking that Parachute swag The latest ParJar feature allows you to see price of any coin/token/USD/CAD/EUGBP/PLN/RUB amount to another coin/token/USD/CAD/EUGBP/PLN/RUB. So if you want to see price of 5000 PAR in AXPR or USD, just type /convert 5000 PAR AXPR or /convert 5000 PAR USD. Try it out in PM with the bot. Ketan won this week’s Parena and laid claim to the lion’s share of the 100k PAR pot. Victor’s trivia this week in ParJar was on Animals. 10 questions, 50k PAR. Dayum! Ian hosted an art quiz in ParJar as well. Another 50k PAR given out. The OG Parachute items were finally phased out of the parachute shop this week. Check out the latest gear that arrived in the shop. The Big Chili Race Standings as on 2-July Alexis receiving one of the last shipments of the OG gear aXpire submitted its proposal to be listed on Binance Dex this week. The 100k monthly AXPR burn can be tracked here. Weekly update video is up as well. Have a look. Co-Founder of Huddl, Vishal Karir, wrote about BOMB as deflationary gold in an article on scarce assets. Jason Choi, researcher at The Spartan Group, talked about two "fascinating & underexposed economic experiments in crypto" in a tweet thread this week. One of them was BOMB. Benjamin’s latest BOMB Report is out as well. You can also watch him elaborate on it in this video. Remember, the BOMB video contest that has been ongoing for a few weeks now? Here’s a compilation of 100 submissions. The winners have been selected. A new market stats dashboard will be going live soon. And finally, don’t forget to mark your calendars for July 15th. Zachary will be announcing the next big step for BOMB. This chart from Benjamin’s report seems to back up BOMB’s core idea Horizon State was featured in the blockchain showcase series by Micky News with a detailed background on the project and where they are heading. HST got added to the FlashCoin mobile wallet and its P2P marketplace. The Hydro Pay app’s official video was released this week. Plus, check out the latest app updates here, here and here. The project was also covered in a publish0x article about 3 promising projects in H2 2019. HYDRO has taken the lead in a vote-for-listing competition to get listed on ChangeNOW. Read more about DeFi and how Molecule is a positive force in the DeFi space in Hydro’s article. In District0x-verse, read up on the latest from the District Weekly. Meme Factory’s newest meme contest is underway. Hearthstone fans, don’t forget to catch the gameplay recording of Game of Memes (which uses Meme Factory assets for game cards). Project Manager Alexander wrote about the journey of Meme Factory so far in his blog article. Meme Factory's dankest meme as of 4th July :p Fantom’s FTM token was listed on OKEx, OKEx Korea and Bittrex International this week. If you’ve been living under a rock for the first half of 2019, CMO Michael Chen’s got your back. His half yearly recap article covers all things Fantom. Michael's presentation at ZKLux#1 was featured in Sikoba's blog post. PaperCoins’ review of Fantom was published this week. Check it out! The team also had an AMA with the latest partner, Xangle. Click here for the transcript. Opacity (and Hydro Pay) were added to dApp browser on dapp.com. June recap for Opacity was out this week. Bounty hunters, have a read of the weekly Bounty0x distribution report. Bloom partnered with the platform to provide Bloom verified accounts for Bounty0x users. Bloom verified accounts are more trustworthy and hence get access to higher value bounties compared to unverified accounts. Bloom takes data privacy seriously 1UP will be seeing a major burn of its tokens in the near future. Read more about the updated tokenomics here. Another project will get a chance to be reviewed in detail for free by Uptrennd. Voting started this week. Have a question to ask Enjin CTO Witek Radomski? Uptrennd will be interviewing him soon and your question could make it to the interview. The ETHOS Universal Wallet turned 1 this week. Happy Birthday! Switch’s press releases went live simultaneously on Reuters, The Merkle, Bitcoin PR Buzz, Coinspeaker, Blockmanity and ZyCrypto. ESH was listed on Mercatox and ZooomEx. One of the coolest features on Switch is the option to buy gift cards with altcoins. Catch up with the latest at Switch from their update article. In Birdchain news, get an early preview of the of the SMS feature on the app and its testing snapshots. Details of the 2gether referral program were released this week. Here’s a link for Spanish speakers. And with that, it’s a wrap for the rapid catch up series and for this week at Parachute. Thank you again for being here and God Bless Parachute! See you again with another update. Ciao!
A while back, I went to the bank to send a bank wire to fund my crypto account. This was my first time sending a bank wire. I read the instructions on the exchange website, and copied and pasted the instructions on my phone to bring to the bank. As I was finalizing the transfer, the representative told me that the bank wire will cost $30 and will take 3-5 business days to settle. This was pretty much a robbery in broad daylight. I am already charged $10 a month to have my bank account active. My money dwindles due to inflation. You can't participate in society in metropolitan areas without a bank account since most employers don't pay you in cash, so you're forced to use a bank. Is the bank's main interest themselves or for the people? At the bottom of the instructions was a long string of characters, preluded by the word "SWIFT". I did not know what it meant at that time, but now I do know. For those of you that don't know, it's the current service banks use to send bank wires. Not only did it cost a lot, the amount of time it took was a waste of my precious commodity: time. As Garlinghouse says, it would be faster to get on a plane and delivery the money by foot. I came across an article yesterday titled: The Average Life Expectancy For A Fiat Currency Is 27 Years ... Every 30 To 40 Years The Reigning Monetary System Fails And Has To Be Retooled. http://georgewashington2.blogspot.ca/2011/08/average-life-expectancy-for-fiat.html?m=1 I encourage you to read it, but the main point of the article is: * The average lifetime of a fiat currency is 27 years * The average lifetime of a monetary system is 40 years The article was written on August 2, 2011. A line in the article states "Simply, at this point we can’t know what will replace the current monetary system, or when. All we can know is that the status quo cannot and so will not survive this crisis." I'm sure we all are smirking at this point since we all know what will replace the current monetary system. Prime recent examples of the fiat system failing is Venezuela and Zimbabwe. The former monetary system was backed by gold, unlinked in 1971. Bitcoin was introduced in 2009. According to the article, the new monetary system should be introduced by 2011. I guess we're a little early? On the note of currencies, can we all stop comparing the market cap of a crypto currency to blue chips like Uber, Amazon etc... Parallels should not be drawn between these, and instead, drawn between total circulating supply of a fiat such as USD, CAD, BP etc. We are all blessed to be in this emerging market very early, and some of you do not even understand the underlying value of a crypto currency. Personally, what I invest in are assets that can provide what humans value the most. Below is a list in what I believe humans value, and in order of importance : 1. Time 2. Health 3. Pleasure 4. Money Crypto currencies will save everyone time and money. That is why it has value. Innovation and technology has allowed almost all industries to flourish. In a capitalistic society, with competition more fierce than ever before, it is those business who do not adapt that gets left behind and goes bankrupt. Banking, one of the oldest sectors, has barely innovated, but 2018 will be the year of fin-tech. MoneyGram partnership is only the beginning. Banking is a highly regulated sector, and it will need a crypto currency that is highly regulated (and not necessarily the most technological advanced crypto) to be adopted and used by banks. Which currency is the most regulated? XRP is, and perhaps XLM, which I am also bullish on. Not bitcoin with lightning, Rai blocks, IOTA, ethereum with raiden. These 4 currencies might be superior to XRP in technology, but not in regulation. Mind you, I am not saying these currencies will disappear, but they will not be adopted by banks. The central banks has already announced they will hold crypto currencies. https://www.coindesk.com/2018-year-central-banks-begin-buying-cryptocurrency/ Banks are already afraid of crypto currencies and are scrambling to find ways to maintain a competitive edge. In physics, electricity flows in the path of least resistance, so does people, and so will money. If banks do not adapt, a currency such as Ether will eventually dominate. Some people might argue that banks will issue their own digital token and will dominate XRP. But that will not be the case. Do you really think The Bank of China will agree to use USD tokens as their main currency? There needs to be a neutral currency that is under no particular bank that will serve as a middle ground for the whole world. I will tell you right now, that each country will eventually ICO their respective currency to have it on the block chain because people demand transparency and is sick of quantitative easing and inflation. And also the government wants to keep track of you. Banks will not disappear anytime soon. I am baffled by those who say crypto will remove banks. A key aspect to banks that crypto cannot offer is credit and lending. Who is going to chase you down if you borrowed some Ether and didn't pay it back? Nobody is going to lend you Ether, and authorities won't care if the vigilant ran away with your virtual coins. Since banks will not disappear, their only option is to integrate to stop the threat of being overthrown by decentralized currencies. Asian people are on average, a smarter race than the rest of the world (this will trigger some people, but please do not start a flame war in the comment section. I am not undermining the rest of the world) Source: https://iq-research.info/en/page/average-iq-by-country# Asian countries such as Korea and Japan are typically quicker to adapt to change and embrace new technologies. As we already know, banks in South Korea and Japan are trialling XRP. Whether or not it will pass, we do not know. But we do know that if it does pass, the technology will ripple (see what I did there?) across Asia, and then on to the rest of the world. We already know that China and USA are major trading partners. So once China is on board, it will be very appealing for USA to also hop on board XRP to increase efficiency in commerce. Looking at the chart below, XRP is approximately tied with ethereum at just over a million transactions per day. As we already know, this isn't a fair comparison because Ethereum is a platform to execute smart contracts and not really a currency. So, XRP is leading in terms of transactions per day used as a currency. According to Moore's law, the value of a network is n2, n being a participant in the network. Need I say more? https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-eth-xrp-bch.html#3m#log As of now, the most regulated crypto currency is XRP. It will stand up to all the regulations put in place, is adequate in technology enough for people to be satisfied, and will endure all the turmoil spewed on it. Until a new coin emerges that can compete against XRP, it will be adopted by banks and appreciate to a market cap of trillions. And that is why I am 100% in XRP. See everyone on the moon. And stop checking the price every waking moment. Spend your valuable time elsewhere.
This post covers what happened in Decred last month. Let's get down to business and have About section at the end.
Wallet and node software version 1.2.0 has been released. Decrediton wallet highlights: improved startup experience, redesigned overview page, added basic graphs to visualize statistics and an export to CSV (helpful for tax reporting). dcrd node software highlights: significantly faster startup and compact filters to support light clients. See full release notes and downloads here, for Decrediton use 1.2.1 bugfix release. The release process has been improved. Instead of announcing a release date and trying to meet it, a Release Candidate 1 (RC1) will now be posted. After it has been tested an bugfixed with the help of the community, a second candidate (RC2) will be released. This is repeated until an RC version with no apparent bugs becomes the final release. The new process removes a ton of pressure from developers and users and gives more time for testing. As our primary consumer-facing product, Decrediton, is growing in features and complexity, more testing will be required for new releases. Politeia is "Getting close to a public beta of voting" (slack). Decred plugin merged, paywall and voting are in the testing stage. Ticket voting works on testnet via CLI. Trezor support got closer as Decred patch was merged. Please note this is only firmware support, to be usable it also needs wallet integration. WooCommerce Decred plugin alpha version is ready for testing. Decred.org received a new sleek exchanges page. The contributors page has been updated to add 10 new faces. Some of them are new to the project but others have been contributing for a while. Dev activity stats for April: 152 active PRs, 125 commits, 21,656 added and 10,288 deleted lines spread across 7 repositories done by 2-7 developers per repository. (chart)
Hashrate: April started at 2.0-2.7 PH/s range and seen a general increase with some big fluctuations between lows at 2.2 and new all time high above 5.2 PH/s. Nodes: there are 200 public listening and 500 normal nodes per dcred.eu as of May 1. 169 nodes already upgraded to version 1.2.0. Some 30 nodes were observed to be testing Release Candidate versions before the final release. Ticket price 30-day average has seen a steady rise to 87.5 DCR. Stake participation is solid 46.1% with 3.53 million DCR as of May 1.
Updates from Obelisk's Taek:
We got results back. They are more or less on line with the simulations I didn't realize this, but we don't get the real chips back for 3 more weeks. The ones we've been testing are hacked together into a DIP package (they are BGA chips) that really screws up the results There's a decent chance that the full bga chips perform better For the time being though, we're pretty much on track for the hashrates estimated on the website (slack, Apr 12)
And regarding the June delivery date:
We're still on track for batch 1. We've ordered most of the parts we'll need, including the chips. We've got working chips, we've got test boards, test units, test everything. We've signed manufacturers to produce everything. Obelisk is going strong. (reddit, Apr 23)
We are thankful for his updates in our #pow-mining channel and hope other ASIC manufacturers will also join. Fellow Sia miners are discussing the design of Obelisk SC1 case. Halong: B29 units are shipping. The amount of units in first batch was estimated 450-600 by our community member. Review of DragonMint B29 published, people are discussing shipping and running the miners. By surprise, Innosilicon announced the sale of D9 DecredMaster ASIC miner with specs identical to Halong B29 while being much cheaper ($6800 Inno vs $10499 Halong). Expected shipping date of the first batch is April 28-30. The company is active on their bitcointalk thread, also see our reddit. Just 9 days later Innosilicon announced second batch with delivery on May 7-11 and same price of $6800. (reddit)
Decred's Brazilian community made good progress with integrations this month.
emiliomann: On April 2nd @Rhama will launch the first BR exchange of altcoins with fiat market and totally within the laws of the Brazilian government. Decred will have the two markets DCBTC and DCBRL. It’s very difficult to fulfill all the legal requirements and get authorization to work with FIAT here.
The exchange turned out to be Profitfy. Profity is innovating by using dcrtime for their blockchain ID login via Original My. Great to see this deeper engagement with the tools that Decred provides, and not a surprise that it comes from @Rhama, who has been a community member since day one. This seems to have spurred another exchange, Braziliex, to bring forward their launch of DCBRL and DCBTC pairs, coming just 2 hours after Profitfy launched. Not stopping there,
viniciusfrias: We're excited to announce PagueCripto.com, a Brazilian crypto-to-fiat payment gateway which accepts Decred among other cryptocurrencies for Brazilians to pay daily bills, such as credit cards, energy, rent, etc, and also to make local bank transfers. Our service is both a web platform and an Android app, and as our community is relevant in Brazil, we are offering a discount coupon (50%) in service fees using DCR until May 14, 2018. Check it out at paguecripto.com and in Google Play Store. (slack)
Moving to other countries, good news from Canada:
michae2xl: Decred is now available on @ezBtcCanada, an exchange with DCCAD trading pair. From Toronto – ezbtc.ca
Eventually we hope to offer the pair in GBP and YEN as well
changenow.io, a non-custodian exchange for fast conversions, added DCR. You can see all exchanges known to support Decred in a spreadsheet maintained by snr01. Many of them are missing from coinmarketcap.
RAurelius: I think that a law firm accepting Decred is a worthy distinction from other previously publicized companies that accept Decred for typical consumer products. Legal services are severely lacking in the Crypto-sphere, so the publicity is good for everyone in this arena.
Great to see business owners reaching us directly in chat. VotoLegal is migrating from Ethereum to Decred blockchain:
emiliomann: VotoLegal, a Brazilian project that uses blockchain technology to allow election campaign funding to be transparent and that all transactions conducted are tracked and made available to the citizens, now uses dcrtime and Decred blockchain. https://twitter.com/decred_bstatus/986610826051276800 (slack)
YBF Ventures and Decred announced partnership in building a blockchain-focused development and business hub in Australia.
With the YBF Ventures partnership, Decred hopes to grow their Australian contractor network and scale their operations throughout the Asia-Pacific region. (btcmanager.com) We specifically chose Decred for a more robust corporate partnership, and it is the first time that a decentralised autonomous organisation is partnering with a ‘traditional’ organisation in such a capacity. (ybfventures.com)
Dustorf joined on the marketing front and is conducting a brand discovery analysis:
Decred is soliciting the input of our user community. In order to better understand you, what you think of Decred, and where you would like it to focus its efforts, we've come up with a short (4 minute) survey. Your input of all varieties is most appreciated https://www.surveymonkey.com/2LHK3FV
April targeted advertising report released (previous March report here). Reach @timhebel for full version. The iconic "Not Overly Scammy" t-shirt by cryptograffiti is available for purchase. For those wondering, the meme originates from @fluffypony. Some hilarious promos by @jackliv3r: onetwothree.
Community event at YBF Ventures in Australia. Meetup in Wroclaw, Poland. BBQ with @scalarcapital team in Austin, USA. Blockchain Expo in London, UK. Decred was well represented at this large-scale industry event. Project Lead Jake took part in several interview and the Decred stand manned by community members was flooded with inquisitive visitors. (video, photo 123) First Decred meetup in Hangzhou, China. (slack) Business of Blockchain at MIT Media Lab in Cambridge, USA. Presentation: Blockchain Sovereignty and Blockchain Integration for Businesses by Jake Yocom-Piatt. (event, reddit, photo 123) Cambridge Blockchain Meetup in Cambridge, USA. Talk: Cutting the Head off the Snake by Jake Yocom-Piatt. (event, photo 123) Upcoming events:
Madison Blockchain Meetup in Madison, USA on May 21
Second episode of Lightning Network educational series is out, exploring topics such as payment channels, onion routing, centralization risk, and challenges that still lie ahead. (youtube) A user’s perspective and introduction to blockchain governance (Richard Red) The Importance of Governance: Analyzing the Aftermath of the Monero Hard Fork by Noah Pierau (btcmanager.com) The Crypto Show w/ Marco from Decred (youtube) Interview with Jake at @Blockchain_Expo by Crypto Coin Growth (youtube) Interview with Jake at @Blockchain_Expo by Cryptocurrency Academy (youtube) Alternative Blockchain Governance Systems With Jake & Kyle From Decred at @Blockchain_Expo by Crypto Disrupt (youtube) Decred Looks Ahead: An Interview with Project Lead Jake Yocom-Piatt (Exclusive) (sludgefeed.com) How Complex Bitcoin Politics Led to the Creation of Decred (btcmanager.com) Interview with Decred’s Project Lead Jake Yocom-Piatt on Crypto Ad Bans and Market Volatility (cryptoslate.com) Decred’s Jonathan Zeppettini: The Industry Is Going To Be Displacing Wall Street (blocktribune.com) On Chain VS. Off Chain Governance: The Ins And Outs (coinjournal.net) Decred: On true decentralisation, Bitcoin communities, and avoiding the ICO route [Video] (blockchaintechnology-news.com) Marco in shitcoin talk episode 54 (youtube)
Reddit highlights: A debate on Decred protocol security and attack cost, a comparison of expected and actual block production times, a write-up on distribution of powers and how Monero could benefit from a PoS governance layer, twoother threads on ASIC resistance, and one discussing different types of decentralization. Very thoughtful discussion on whether it is appropriate to use half naked photos in marketing, followed by meta-discussion how to handle very polarizing issues and unwanted contributions to the marketing efforts of a decentralized project. (slack, continued) A new #governance channel was created to discuss governance in Decred and other projects. politeia subreddit was recovered for Decred community. Thanks to Tivra for filing the request. Politeia can bring a lot of value outside Decred so it well deserves its own sub. A new Slack invite page has been setup and onboarded 40 people in 48 hours. Decred StackExchange site proposal was closed due to inactivity in a 7 day period, according to Area 51 rules.
In April Decred showed a confident recovery after previous months. DCUSD moved from below $40 to nearly $90 and the more liquid DCBTC from 0.0058 to 0.0093. OOOBTC showed unexpectedly huge DCR trading volume of $19 m on April 10 (reddit), it went back to normal 2 weeks later. On April 25 a wild rush took the price from 0.00777 to 0.0177 BTC in under 30 minutes on Poloniex, setting a new USD all time high of ~$165 ($141 world average). Prices on other exchanges followed to a lesser degree. Possible causes were discussed on reddit. Talking about all time highs, an indicator tracking difference between ATH and current price shows Decred is competitive at retaining USD value.
Bittrex finally opened registrations again. ASIC debates are raging after Bitmain stealth-launched ASICs for Sia, Monero and Ethereum. Most opinions reflect on whether and how to resist ASICs, but some are recognizing the Decred way, like this excellent piece. The importance of governance is gaining recognition as well. One notable example is Mike Hearn's AMA where it was a hot topic.
About This Issue
This project was motivated by the desire to expose just how much is happening in Decred and save the time for people unable to actively follow our channels. It aims to cover all relevant developments with a short description and links to read further. It shows the depth of the project and the involvement of the community. We also plan to launch a newsletter and consider a shorter version if there is such a demand. This is the first issue and feedback is welcome to discover what is best for our readers. Please join our Slack and write us on #writers_room or comment directly on GitHub. Any help is welcome too. Credits (Slack names, alphabetical order): bee, jazzah, Richard-Red, snr01 and vj.
Hello all. I will make this quite frank. I've been noticing dangerous advise being spread around the forums that is based too much on hype and I do not want the layman investor to suffer. We are all here to profit intelligently, not to gamble. So I would just like to offer a few tips to new investors of stellar. I am not a stock professional but have ties to the finance industry and have dabbled in forex and investments. I got burned so that you don't have to, so heed my advise. Especially since I have institutional friends who have helped me along the way (think Goldman, BNP, JP, etc). Tips: 1.) Do not over-diversify your portfolio but pay attention to exposure. Investing is all about the risk-reward ratio. Greater risk does not always mean greater reward. For example, I have 80% of my portfolio in traditional investment vehicles like real estate investment trusts, stocks, bonds, and exchange traded funds. 20% is for cryptos however this is what I consider my 'play' money since cryptos are a very young market, that is based more on potential rather than value (you can't gauge the financial health of crypto using traditional tools like cashflow analysis or price/earnings ratios). I think cryptos are incredibly valuable but going all in especially with the inflated nature of bitcoin, would be dangerous for any of you, so I would suggest you diversify between traditional and cryptos. 2.) Reduce crypto risk by analyzing competitors to your alt coin. As I said before, do not overcompensate this diversification but bet for and against a crypto. In forex institutions use this tool to limit exposure to currency volatility. Imagine you go long GBP/USD, then you should naturally short GBP/CAD to a degree in order to limit exposure, but maximize growth potential. In the crypto world crypto pairs aren't really traded so they are illiquid markets, but I would suggest hedging a bit of stellar with XRP and even bitcoin. With this strategy I have been able to mitigate my losses from the recent stellar drop. Picture cryptos as a ranked list with the most valuable on top and the worst in the bottom. If BTC is on the top of your ranked list and XLM is in 3rd place but XRP is in 2nd place, then short XRP/BTC and go long XRP/XLM. I know these pairings don't all exist but it's to give you an idea how to think about the market. 3.) Support and resistance is important for technical analysis. The way you determine this is simply by seeing the area where past price action has not been able to surpass (resistance) or where past price action has not been able to drop below (support). Usually when a support or resistance level is tested multiple times it becomes stronger. However, there are ways to guess how breakouts are formed. See the chart below. https://imgur.com/u9r2e0c In the chart you have what is called accumulation. The price keeps testing the 400 resistance mark, making it a stronger barrier, however every dip in price is higher than the proceeding dip. This signals that there is a solid accumulation that will result in a break out. Just because a price level is tested multiple times does not mean there is a break out. You need to usually have such an accumulation phase (think of the imagery of stairs). In the same chart you can also see the price has not been able to really go below 400 because it is the new support level and the more it tests it, the stronger the barrier will become. 4.) Statistics has a fine way of helping us in our journey. My best friend is a mathematician and was able to offer advise on statistical trend setting. He stated that the longer the trend is set, the higher probability that it will keep going in that direction. Sounds obvious right? Well there is some truth to this but this goes right to my next point. 5.) For every second and moment you have a position open you increase your risk exponentially. This is why high frequency trading exists. So I am trying to offer a nuanced point that while trend continuation is statistically likely, so is the exponential increase of risk. These two last tips are particularly for leveraged traders. 6.) Be creative. Try to implement value investing criteria on cryptos in order to assess the true value of your chosen currency, whatever that may be. It can truly be difficult for ones like Bitcoin but for centralized cryptos like XRP and non profits like XLM it isn't too difficult. I saw an investor here requesting stellars financial statements and had a slight grin. That is the type of investor you should be. Vigilant, because more than making money, we should all be focusing on protecting money. Do not be greedy, because you will be susceptible to hot tips and emotion. Make 'preserving' your capital a priority. As long as you are gaining above inflation, all of you are winning. And now... 7.) Luck number 7! Anyway, buying on the dips is a great strategy, especially when it is testing a support or resistance zone that has been tested a bit before. Buying into a dip in a zone that has only been tested once is a bit risky. You want to see a form of sustainable accumulation. 8.) Do not simply invest in a crypto purely based on the dip. I will admit I have done this sometimes to an extent and it is okay. But the point of this post is to encourage you to do your homework and measure valuations, based on market volume, liquidity, technological announcements, and financial statements. The reason I sometimes partially ignore this is because I usually enter investments to hold at least 8 months -1 year minimum. 9.) Centralization and decentralization do not matter in crypto. I know XRP gets hate and I'd prefer stellar lumens, but that is not purely a reason to not invest in a currency. With centralization you get more compliance and regulatory oversight which marks higher security in investment. Cryptos are amazing, but with institutional involvement, this is an important case to make. 10.) Governments do not have conventional ways to regulate cryptos, but they do have tools to manipulate the market, so be attentive. All it takes is one major country to become heavily involved, in order to ensure a large price drop. 11.) DO NOT SHORT! I REPEAT DO NOT SHORT! Leave this to the professionals. Whereas with buying a currency you have a limited downward risk (you only have the risk to lose all your money), with shorting you effectively have no price floor to limit risk and exposure since the price theoretically has unlimited growth potential. If you decide to short stellar at 0.10 cents then you can lose all your investment and even be in debt (depends on leveraging), because the price can go anywhere from 0 cents to infinity. When you buy, you limit your risk to 0 cents which is where you lose all your money, but maximize growth potential which is technically infinite. This plays into the concept that the longer you have a position open, the greater the exponential risk. I hope you all enjoyed my guide. I am by no means an expert and am new to cryptos, however I've had associates involved for longer and friends that are also in finance (I worked in the back office of a private equity firm even though that wasn't glorious).
CheapAir.com appears to have chosen self-hosted payment processor BTCPay for its Bitcoin payments, removing BitPay. The firm stats that
Coinbase is sun-setting their merchant platform next week which has led to a need for an alternative processor. Coinbase mentioned that it would be retiring its merchant processing function in April which the cryptocurrency industry condemned.
Caspian Partners, a cryptocurrency portfolio and risk management platform announced a partnership with Bitmex. Caspian customers will now have a unified trading module with more liquidity. The firm provides order and execution management system (OEMS), risk management system (RMS), and a portfolio management system (PMS).
US transportation company Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC) revealed it is joining the Blockchain in Transport Alliance (BITA) in a company announcement yesterday. The BITA association formed in 2017 and aims to develop blockchain applications to the transport and logistics industries. BITA also includes organizations like FedEx (FDX), Uber, UPS (UPS) and GE Transportation.
Thailand’s largest bank has joined a trade finance program utilizing R3’s Corda distributed ledger technology (DLT). R3 is a consortium of over 200 companies that uses technology on blockchain to allow businesses to develop applications on top of its Corda platform.
The Bank of China will use blockchain technology to alleviate poverty in the Tibet Autonomous Region, a province with a poverty rate of 12.4%. The Bank of China has developed a cloud-based system to manage a local poverty reduction fund in the past. The bank has decided to upgrade the existing system with blockchain technology and set up a multi-node blockchain network to connect with their partners like the Agricultural Bank of China
A Czech Republic utility company will begin accepting payments in cryptocurrencies. Pražská Plynárenská is one of the major suppliers of natural gas in the Czech Republic. In June it will establish a payment payment gateway which will transfer bitcoin payments into fiat currency.
A recent study by the Warwick Business School claims that investor sentiment is driving cryptocurrency prices. The study analyzed the top 14 cryptocurrencies based on market capitalization. The primary conclusion was that hype and emotions played the most significant role in determining whether the price of a cryptocurrency rises or falls.
Bitcoin Gold (BTG) has suffered from a 51% attack resulting in a loss USD$17.5mm. The 51% attack permitted double spending to occur. According to the Bitcoin Gold (BTG) team, exchanges have been targeted rather than individual users.
South Africa’s Reserve Bank has chose to call cryptocurrencies “cyber-tokens” because they don’t meet the requirements of money.
In Colombia, two Bitcoin Cash (BCH) proponents have developed a payment processor called Bitek.co. The company offers merchants processing with payable invoices and accounting services as the Bitek platform provides merchants with the ability to accept BCH and covert all or a percentage of the funds into Colombian pesos.
Employees in Ukraine were recently caught using the police department’s resources for four months to mine Bitcoin. In April, mining equipment was found in the office of the Communications Deparment which include eight graphics cards, six power units, two hard drives, a motherboard and a complete system.
VeChain (VEN), a Shanghai-based blockchain startup is testing a blockchain application which verifies a wine supply chain and fights counterfeits. The Chinese wine industry is worth USD$2.8bn and reportedly the Chinese consume wine that is not authentic which as weakened public trust in the quality of the product.
Ireland has clarified taxation on the cryptocurrency space. In terms of direct taxes: corporation tax, income tax and capital gains tax are all applicable, but each case should be reviewed separately.
Barcelona will create a blockchain center in the city’s tech hub. The location will be next to Barcelona Tech City which opened in the Summer of 2016 and will most likely be occupied by Spanish blockchain network Alastria.
Bitfury-backed Hut 8 Mining Group mined more than 800 bitcoins in the first quarter of 2018. The company raised CAD$70mm to continue investing in hardware and generated nearly CAD$11mm in revenue.
Commerzbank and multinational conglomerate Thyssenkrupp have successfully conducted an FX transaction on a blockchain platform. Thyssenkrupp transferred 500,000 euros in an exchange rate between the euro and the Polish zloty at some point in future.
Surkus has raised USD$10mm in Series B funding led by EOS global, a USD$200mm venture fund formed earlier this year. The venture fund is making its first investment and it aims to leverage the EOSIO blockchain to catalyze the transformation of the digital assets space.
CoTrader is introducing a decentralized fund management platform that includes cryptocurrency. CoTrader is a blockchain trading platform and it plans to disrupt investment funds to become the world’s largest outlet for all assets.
The Deutsche Boerse, owner of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange is considering offering cryptocurrency products according to a report. A move into the crypto space may not be immediate as Jeffrey Tessler, the firm’s head of clients, said the firm must “make sure we understand the underlying transaction which isn’t the easiest thing to do”.
Two Russian financial institutions are set to test a regulatory platform that aims to make domestic initial coin offerings (ICOs) more transparent and secure for traditional investors. The Russian National Settlement Depository (NSD) announced on Thursday that it is working with Sberbank CIB, to test an ICO issuance platform launched by the Bank of Russia.
The US Department of Justice has reportedly launched a criminal investigation into cryptocurrency traders who may have manipulated the market with old-school illicit tactics, such as spoofing. The investigation is also being conducted with the Commodity and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
American Express is exploring using blockchain technology to increase security for both users and merchants. The firm is exploring an identity wallet and whether blockchain can be used.
Russian State Duma has approved its first reading of a legislation package that regulates crypto-related matters and activities. The legal texts will open the way for legalization of cryptocurrencies in the Russian Federation, including their exchange and circulation under certain conditions.
Revolut, a British based company that created the first app to allow customers to invest in Bitcoin, has announced it will be adding Ripple (XRP) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) to its platform. Revolut began as an app allowing users to transfer fiat currencies, but now has four cryptocurrencies on its platform.
Banks are losing international payments business. Banks have lost 40% of market share for consumer-to-consumer (C2C) cross border payments to non-banks over the last year. Banks have also lost 30% of the consumer-to-business (C2B) and 5% of the business-to-business (B2B) payments market over the last year.
Japanese IT giant, GMO Internet is set to roll out the world’s first bitcoin mining device based on 7nm chips within the year. The firm is launching a new B2 miner on June 6 with mass production to follow and shipment starting by the end of October.
Coinbase has acquired a service called Paradex, a cryptocurrency trading service that lets users trade many digital tokens on a decentralized exchange. The exchange relies on smart contracts to allow users to trade tokens without a centralized authority to record the transactions on a blockchain.
Money Forward, Japan’s most popular personal budgeting app, is launching a crypto asset exchange this year. The firm plans to launch a crypto media platform by Summer followed by an exchange and the construction of a digital asset remittance and settlement system.
The Marshal Islands have replaced the USD$ with its own cryptocurrency. The bill was signed March first but the news is catching attention this week. US Dollars will still be accepted, yet the nation’s cryptocurrency, the “sovereign” will need to be integrated into the country’s financial system. An initial coin offering will take place and the supply will be capped at 24mm tokens
Bank of America has been awarded a patent to let users access a certain blockchain network known as a distributed validating network. Certain users will be granted permission and data will be stored in blocks in which a system can automate this process.
Singaporean-based virtual social trading platform, TrakInvest is looking to become one of the first Asian-based projects to use Hedera Hashgraph’s distributed ledger technology.
Norway’s central bank is preparing for a future in which it might issue a digital currency due to a drop in usage of cash in the country. The Norges Bank released a report titled “Central Bank Digital Currencies” which highlighted that the bank must consider several new attributes that are important for ensuring an efficient robust payment system
Overstock.com’s Tzero is planning to launch a regulated exchange for security tokens in collaboration with Box Digital Markets. The companies will seek approval from the SEC.
A Spanish Central Bank Governor believes that cryptocurrencies will bring more risk than benefits. Luis Maria Linde said that blockchain offers interesting possibilities but that is not quite mature.
Rural banks in the Philippines are looking to adopt blockchain technology in a bid to improve inclusion for residents. The initiative is led by the Union bank of the Philippines, one of the country’s largest banking institutions.
India is considering taxing cryptocurrency at 18% as ‘intangible property’ according to a report issued today. The report detailed that purchases or sales of cryptocurrencies are considered supply of goods and those facilitating transactions should be treated as services.
Every Capital is launching Australia’s first retail crypto hedge fund with the goal of making crypto assets accessible to every Australian investor. Investors will be able to sign up in a fund that covers a range of cryptocurrencies and initial coin offerings (ICOs).
The Pentagon and Defense department are weighing on whether owning cryptocurrency is problematic for those who already have security clearances and for those individuals requesting government security clearances.
Steemit, the platform of cryptocurrency of Steem (STEEM) has announced they have over 1,000,000 users. The blockchain processes over one million transactions daily. The Steemit.com website receives over 250,000 unique visitors every day
CheapAir.com adds Litecoin (LTC) Dash (DASH) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) to its payment options for travelers. The firm first begin accepting cryptocurrency by agreeing to receive payments in Bitcoin (BTC) back in 2013.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), is proposing changes to existing regulations that would ease market entry for blockchain-based and decentralized exchanges. According to a paper published yesterday, the MAS states that the single tier “recognized market operators” regulatory framework cannot meet the demand for new business models based on such emerging technologies.
Chilean President, Mario Marcel has recently made comments in favor of developing a regulatory apparatus for virtual currencies. This openness contrasts the country’s recent banking embargo targeting cryptocurrencies in Chile.
MIT is demoing a use case for bitcoin’s lightning network – how the cryptocurrency can be combined with smart contracts to not only handle millions of transactions, but also with more complexity. Verge (XVG) has experienced its second hack in less than two months.
Executives are citing a DDoS attack which is giving its blockchain a serious delay. The attack has lasted more than a few hours and has resulted in over 35mm XVG tokens being stolen. CoinGate, a payment gateway for cryptocurrencies, is planning to launch
Bitcoin Lightning Network payments on its platform. The company serves over 4,000 merchants globally and will allow companies to accept bitcoin and altcoin payments which can be transferred in BTC, EUR€ or USD$ as payouts.
The Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) is cracking down on unlicensed companies involved in the cryptocurrency space. Companies that the Commission is targeting include investment and trading companies.
A bank in Argentina could soon become the first in the world to begin using Bitcoin for customers’ international remittances. Banco Mansventas (BMV) partnered with local blockchain financial services firm Bitex and are looking to move away from the SWIFT clearing network which has seen multiple failures and security problems in recent years.
Payments startup, Circle has launched the full version of its crypto investment app. After a soft launch, the company has rolled out an investment focused app and one of the features is a “Buy the Market” tool for new cryptocurrency investors.
China Central Television (CCTV) has said that domestic initial coin offerings (ICOs) are still rampant despite a 2017 ban. The network went on to discuss that “air coins”, or token projects that are not backed by legally registered business entities have increased by 30x since the ICO crackdown.
A new crypto teller machine is now operational in Johannesburg, South Africa. The ATM supports several digital coins and joins a growing number of terminals offering automated crypto-fiat exchange services in the country and across the continent.
Japan’s largest bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) is partnering with Akamai to handle up to 1mm transactions per second using blockchain technology. The platform will confirm transactions within 2 seconds or less and batches of transactions will adhere to the same schedule.
Lawmakers in Taiwan are forming a new parliamentary group aimed to foster the growth of the nation’s emerging blockchain sector. The group will be called the Taiwan Parliamentary Coalition for Blockchain (TPCB).
The Bitcoin community is celebrating the 8th anniversary of the “Bitcoin Pizza Day” which is a celebratory day of a Pizza purchased with Bitcoin. On today’s date 8 years ago, Bitcoin was trading at $.0004 and Laszio Hanyecz purchased two pizzas from Papa John’s for USD$41 using 10,000 BTC
Ohio may become the latest US state to legally recognize smart contracts and records stored on a blockchain. The Senate Bill 300, amends sections of the Uniform Electronic Transactions act and will include blockchain records and smart contracts as electronic records.
Virtuse, a Singaporean cryptocurrency exchange, is connecting crypto markets with global financial assets, commodities, government emission allowances and stock indices to eliminate the middlemen and provide transparency to the financial sector.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued an advisory statement for listing virtual currency derivative products. The director of the Division of Market Oversight (DMO) has said that the CFTC staff will seek to provide additional guidance to help market participants keep pace with innovation while complying with CFTC regulations.
American aviation company TapJets is considering adding Ripple (XRP) and Litecoin (LTC) to its fleet of payment options. The company inquired about which cryptocurrencies to add via a Twitter poll, and 57,000 users voted.
Spain’s financial regulator has clarified its position on regulated investment funds investing directly in cryptocurrencies. The regulatory body stated that an investment fund registered with the countries National Securities Market Commission can make investments in cryptocurrencies.
Blockchain startup ShareRing is developing a mobile application to consolidate sharing services worldwide. The sharing economy is currently valued at over USD$100bn according to Brookings.
Polish Finance Ministry is rolling back a cryptocurrency tax and is making promises to provide smarter regulation. The ministry will be conducting an “in-depth analysis” of the crypto space to create better regulation and taxation policies going forward.
Walmart has submitted a patent application to track items the store sells to customers. The proposed system would allow a customer to register the item after it is purchased.
TradingView, a software website that many cryptocurrency traders use just raised USD$37mm in funding which was led by Insight Venture Partners. Currently the company receives 75% of its revenues from monthly subscription plans that offer more charts, data and real-time server-side alerts
A “cryptosweep” was launched today in the US and Canada by a group of securities regulators. Nearly 70 inquiries and investigations, and 45 pending or completed enforcement actions will be taken, although it is unclear when the related enforcement actions will be publicly announced
The team behind Parity Technologies have announced they are shutting down PICOPS, a service used by ICO campaigns to comply with regulations by validating that the owner of an Ethereum wallet has already passed an ID background check.
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has shown in a report that crypto related fraud made up a tiny percent of scam activity in 2017. Of the 200,000 scams reporting, only 0.61% of the financial claims made were crypto related – USD$2.1mm
LMAX Exchange Group is setting up the first cryptocurrency exchange for institutional clients. The group will focus on liquid established cryptocurrencies which include: Bitcoin (BTC), Ripple (XRP), Litecoin (LTC), and Bitcoin Cash (BCH).
Former OKEx cryptocurrency exchange CEO, Chris Lee, is now joining rival cryptocurrency exchange Huobi. In a public note, Lee suggested that OKCoin has experienced notable turnover in senior executives over the past few years which may have affected his decision.
Nearly 40% of all Chinese blockchain startups emerged in 2017, according to China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The report highlighted that China currently has 456 startups focused on blockchain technology development as part of their core business.
Japan Cryptocurrency exchange Coincheck will delist Monero and three other privacy coins from Coincheck, one of the country’s most popular exchanges. Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) believes that users have too much anonymity with these cryptocurrencies.
Bankex Smart Justice is bringing arbitration to blockchain technology. If users are in disagreement, Bankex claims the firms technology can help users settle
Thomas Lee owns up to his failed prediction of Bitcoin (BTC) rising ahead of Blockchain week. In a note to clients before Consensus 2018, Lee predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) would surge anywhere from 10-70% yet during the week, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell
Here's why I predict Dogecoin will increase 20x in the next 2-3 weeks...
It's an arbitrary number, but I believe Dogecoin will increase substantially in value over the next couple of weeks. It's meaningless, but I predict Doge will go up to USD 0.025 per coin in the next 2-3 weeks. Reason 1: The number of transactions the last 24 hours for Dogecoin: 5,471. The number of transactions for Bitcoin: 2,538. This is very surprising, especially considering many are hoarding Dogecoins, expecting the value to go up. I am assuming that a greater % are hoarding Dogecoins than Bitcoins. Reason 2: Now take a look at the following chart (select "3 months" on the right) and let me know if that doesn't get you excited: http://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/sentinusd-btc-doge.html People are sending nearly as much DOGE as Bitcoin! As of this writing, in the past 24 hours people have send USD $194,478,411 worth of Dogecoin and USD $420,470,695 worth of Bitcoin. That's nearly 50% as much. But Bitcoin has a market cap of 16,200% more than Dogecoin. Reason 3: As of Jan 30, people can now purchase Dogecoins with USD or CAD without having to buy Bitcoin first. VaultofSatoshi was the first to offer it but more exchanges should be allowing it soon. The big question is how many of the above Bitcoin transactions were people wanting to purchase Dogecoins? Reason 5: As more people want to participate in Bitcoin they will discover Doge. Bitcoin is seen as "expensive" whereas Dogecoin is seen as very cheap. For USD $1 you can pick up hundreds of Dogecoins. Reason 6: As more merchants use Bitcoin they will look to alternatives where the confirmation time isn't as much. (Bitcoin's confirmation time is 600% longer than Dogecoin) Reason 7: Dogecoin will have 3,000x more coins than Bitcoin. But Bitcoin is 550,000x more expensive than Dogecoin, per coin. That's still a multiple of about 180x if there were just as many coins. This is not a market analysis by any means, and I'm sure some of my math is off but I think you get the idea. [edited 3k to 3kx]
Krugman and Bitcoin and Me: Radical Thoughts on Fixed Supply Currency
My dad asked me how I reconciled Bitcoin's fixed supply with the Keynesian model of supply. I understand that most people around here don't hold much stock in what Paul Krugman has to say. But much of the real world actually does, what with his Nobel prize and all. So I put some serious consideration into what he had to say about deflation, how it relates to Bitcoin, and other vague currency questions. What follows is my email back to my pa. Many of these ideas have come from my time spent in this forum, so feel free to chop it up, edit, and distribute away if you find any of it worthwhile. Thoughts from a liberal after reading Paul Krugman's 2010 NYT piece: Why is Deflation Bad? Krugman and Bitcoin and Me Krugman's argument against deflation is built with a dependency: that there is a central authority which controls the money supply. So in a sense he has two core points. (1) Krugman prefers that a centralized authority control the currency supply in order to manipulate the economy. I'll allow that this tool can be a good, stabilizing force. But if that's the case, I want to be able to vet that institution from the bottom up before handing them the keys to the kingdom. And I want that institution to unequivocally work for society, not for Goldman Sachs. If I thought the current system worked well, I wouldn't be exploring other options in the first place. (2) Krugman prefers that that centralized authority manipulate the economy such that it encourages spending and lending. In other words, manipulate toward small inflation. This could be a good thing. And maybe the economy it creates is more fluid than a deflationary one. But when you bake into the system incentives to spend now and borrow from the future now, you get exactly the problems that you'd expect: over-consumption and a society largely ridden in debt. Control of the supply of the currency carries tremendous power. It can be used to smooth natural economic cycles and encourage specific consumer and producer behavior. This supply-manipulative ability is not in and of itself a bad thing. The question is whether it is necessary- because with Bitcoin (as it stands) it is impossible. Within the theoretical bounds of crypto-currency, the abilities for algorithmic, "smart" money-supply, one that rests on mathematics rather than the banking elite, are endless. There are truly exciting developments to come in this space. A First Consideration on Currency Think, for a moment, of the unit of currency as sort of a creditor's note. It is an IOU from society; a placeholder for some unit of production. It says, "I produced something valuable (for someone else who takes part in this system). In return I got this note. I have reasonable assurance that one day I can cash this IOU in for something that I'll need in the future." The unit of currency acts as a placeholder for its owner. Under this system, people trade their current productivity for the placeholder, and later (given the system still has integrity) they can trade that placeholder for something that raises their standard of living. It allows us to "time-shift" our production with respect to our consumption. But don't forget!: A unit of currency as "just a thing". It only carries value if it is actually valued by somebody else you want to do business with. The dollar, the gold bar, the Bitcoin. the Euro, all work the same way: they are nothing but numbers or paper or metal. They are just atoms arranged in a way that make them valuable to a group of people only because they trust in the future of their common system. Currencies are a subset of commodities. Commodities are things (oil, clothing, food, televisions) that are valuable to humans because they have useful properties. Like we said above, a currency's use is to "time-shift" production and consumption. The properties of the object that afford this advantage are usually a combination of irreproducibility, fungibility, scarcity, ease of transport, and securability. Why is Deflation Bad? In his 2010 NYT piece, Krugman argues that deflation hurts the economy due to three factors: (1) People become less willing to spend, because sitting on money becomes an investment. Your dollar tomorrow will buy you more than what it can today, so why spend today? Therefore, spending goes down. (2) Those in debt get into serious trouble awfully quickly, because the nominal amount-owed appreciates in value. As a result, they spend significantly less. At the same time, creditors have been shown to not spend enough such that it make up for this difference. Therefore, borrowing (and spending) goes down. (3) Psychologically, people hate nominal wage decreases. With a fixed supply currency, year over year, wages will have to decrease in name. Even if the value of your wage rises, the amount written on the paycheck is lower. Therefore, people freak out. These are troubling scenarios, though I think the first two are more substantial than the third. I don't mean to underestimate the psychological factor- in economics psychology is everything- but we'll talk about this later. Krugman presents the first two points as bugs in a deflationary system. I see them as features. "Your dollar will buy you more tomorrow than what it can today." I think this is natural. We are a rapidly advancing species; through technology we are becoming more efficient, automating crappy tasks, raising the standard of living for less work, of course a dollar (that placeholder for your unit of production) is going to go further tomorrow than it does today. Personally, I find this appealing. It provides every incentive to work now and spend later. That falls very much in line with good ol' American hard-working values and non-consumptive ethics. Krugman finds this worrying though. If people have less incentive to spend, their is a crisis in demand. Hello liberals?! When was the last time we complained about lower consumption? In a country wracked with hyper-consumption that has put an unprecedented load on Earth's environment and ignited a climate crisis, I see a drop in demand as a breath of fresh air! Furthermore, you don't have to worry about people never spending. People will always spend now- but only on the want/need products, rather than the maybe-want-need-this-now-really-might-as-well-because-my-currency-is-losing-value-and-all-these-things-meet-my-zillion-useless-ephemeral-wants products. I do believe there are much higher economic principles at work here. The United States is the world's default consumer. The global economy needs us to consume as much as it needs the million child laborers to produce. The economy would come crashing down if we stopped consuming immediately. But if we're trying to aim for a more sustainable economy, one that is compatible with the Earth's environment, let's move slowly and use a deflating currency as an incentive! "Deflation rewards creditors and hurts debtors. Debtors spend less and creditors don't spend more enough to offset." The impassive Krugman is beating around the bush. There is a problem when debtors suffer at the expense of creditors, and it's more than just a net loss in consumer spending. If you're concerned about a reduction in spending, see my previous point. But the remaining ethical problem is glaring- a power imbalance already exists in a creditor-debtor relationship, and it seems that deflation only widens this gap, crucifying the debt class on a cross of deflationary coin. There's no doubt that this is a problem. And wealth redistribution may ultimately be easier with an inflationary currency- again, a word on that later. But there is also an incentive here: borrow less. Credit card debt is at an all-time high, up 1200% in the US since 1980, all while student loans have ballooned out of control. But neither of these problems even compares to the $7.8 trillion of mortgage debt our country has dug itself into. Now debt is not a bad thing. The right combination of debt and saving, that is- using both capital previously earned with capital borrowed from future earnings- indicates a healthy economy. I don't want to have to work my entire life only to afford a house at the very end. I want to be able to borrow from my future economic output, buy the house now, and live in it while I work to pay it off. The same goes for student debt, corporate debt-financing, etc. Access to credit is crucial to a healthy middle class. But ever-increasing debt is not sustainable. Nobody lives- and produces- forever, so you cannot always borrow from your future economic output. In the end, regardless of the money tricks you play, you have to produce enough value to cover your consumption. The world recently found out, in a mild manor, what happens when a currency's incentive and a nation's culture favors borrowing. When given the opportunity to build houses they never could have dreamed of paying off in their lifetime, millions of people took the offer and the biggest lenders took the risk. The echoes of their mass default still burden the global economy 6+ years later. The point is, if Krugman says "inflation promotes borrowing", I say, "is this debt-ridden wreck what we really want our economy to look like?" "People would freak out when their paycheck goes down." I say get over it. Other possible proclamations in a deflationary world:
"Today, this meal costs the most it ever will!"
"My phone bill will never be this high again!"
"Filling my car up costs less every day!"
"Taxes go down every year so I love my life!"
Better yet, this reflects reality! Technology makes everything cheaper every day. You should be paying lower phone bills tomorrow. Has the infrastructure gotten less efficient? Here it feels like Krugman's grasping for straws. He pounces on people's reaction to their one source of income rather than their many expenses. This point also invokes that ugly liberal side: "The people don't know what's best for them." The Central Authority as a Tool for Wealth Redistribution Now we're talking. As a Liberal, I consider this to be a most important necessary evil. But let's call it what it is: stealing from the rich to give to the poor. (Unless we reject the modern notion of property- stay tuned...) In an inflationary economy, value is constantly leaching out of everyone's savings. Those who control the monetary supply have a means of reaching into every dollar, and skimming off a little bit of value. We can choose to do a lot of good with this. Right now the skimmed dollars are "lent" to banks- the theory is that they then have more to lend to the general public and everyone benefits. Lending is good right? It introduces liquidity. But continue this cycle ad infinitum and all the spending in the economy starts in the form of bank debt! It is no coincidence that Americans households are more in debt than ever before. If wealth redistribution is the only benefit of a central supply authority (which can fall out of trust at any time), this is a weak foundation. We already have a mechanism for wealth redistribution: taxation. Let's be proud of it, call a duck a duck, raise taxes on the wealthy, and introduce that liquidity with massive infrastructural programs, education spending, science spending, etc, rather than in the form of bank loans. One last point- inflation appears to be a flat tax. That's already bad. It affects every dollar proportionally, rich or poor. Worse, the middle class and poor have a higher percentage of their net worth in USD- so inflation then becomes a regressive tax... given to banks... to be lent out to again to the middle class. All in the name of wealth redistribution?! In the name of kick-starting the economy?! Something's fishy here, and "you wouldn't understand, it's more complicated" doesn't cut it as an answer for these practices. Bitcoin So. What are we even doing here? In 2009 a great mind developed a tool, the first in the history of human civilization, for "minting" a currency according to a fixed and open sourced algorithm. Without the involvement of any third party, you can now send an irreproducible digital object of fixed supply to anyone with an internet connection. The implications are mind-boggling. But the first such currency, Bitcoin, happened to be fixed-supply and ultimately deflationary, which has re-sparked the deflation vs. inflation debate. This is happenstance. The protocol that gives rise to these digital currencies- the bitcoin protocol (small b)- could easily implement a different supply model. Paul Krugman can start a currency, KrugCoin, with any supply model that he likes! Which begs one last question. Let's say I'm presented with an option: I may collect my paycheck in a currency that deflates- that is, my paycheck will gain value over time. Or I may collect my paycheck in a currency that inflates- it loses value over time. Why would anyone choose the latter? Must a population be forced into using an inflationary currency? Are we?
Futures Falls On Chip Carnage As World Await Brexit Verdict
Stocks in Europe faded early gains and S&P futures fell after a mixed session in Asia as chip stocks were taken to the woodshed on poor guidance from Nvidia and Applied Materials sparked fears that the chip bull run is over, while investors wondered whether China and America can de-escalate their trade war after mixed signals by US officials just days before the G-20 summit. The euro failed to rebound while the sterling halted its biggest drop in 2 years after some of the most dramatic 24 hours yet in the Brexit process and another turbulent week for world markets. With reports of a UK leadership coup still rife and fear that the country could crash out of the EU without an agreement, cable struggled to rise above $1.28. Meanwhile traders around the world were waiting for an outcome from the ongoing Brexit saga: “If and when a vote on the withdrawal agreement occurs is uncertain. Whether the withdrawal bill is passed by both houses of Parliament is uncertain,” Joseph Capurso, a senior currency strategist at CBA, said in a note. “Whether the Prime Minister resigns or is challenged for the leadership is uncertain. And, whether there is a second referendum and/or an election is uncertain.” Fears over political turmoil in the UK and Italy dragged Europe's Stoxx 600 back into the red, set for its first weekly drop in three, trimming Friday’s gain as AstraZeneca's drop weighed on the gauge after a cancer-drug setback while telecom names were outperforming. Utilities started the session lower in the wake of yesterday’s ECJ decision which deemed the UK’s scheme for ensuring power supplies during the winter months as a violation of state aid rules. Other individual movers include Vivendi (+4.2%) sit at the top of the Stoxx 600 after posting impressive Q3 sales metrics and announcing a potential sale of part of their Universal Music Group division. Elsewhere, AstraZeneca (-2.3%) and Shire (-1.3%) have been seen lower throughout the session after both posting disappointing drug updates. Not helping sentiment, ECB head Mario Draghi said the bank still plans to dial back its stimulus at the end of the year, but acknowledged the economy had hit a soft patch and inflation may rise more slowly than expected. “If firms start to become more uncertain about the growth and inflation outlook, the squeeze on margins could prove more persistent,” Draghi told a conference. Earlier in the day, Asian shares ended the session in the red (MSCI Asia -0.2% to 151.52), led lower by declines in Japan, even as China and Hong Kong rose after initial reports the United States might pause further China tariffs were denied by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross who damped hopes of any imminent trade deal with China. The Nikkei fell 0.6% pressured by a drop in the USDJPY after China Mofcom began an investigation into alleged dumping of machine tools by Japanese firms. The Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) swung between gains and losses after continued liquidity inaction by the PBoC which skipped Reverse Repos for a 16th consecutive occasion. S&P futures were hit on fresh slowdown concerns, this time out of the semiconductochip space, after Nvidia gave a dire sales forecast, projecting a 20% drop in revenue while a disappointing outlook from Applied Materials indicated the chip industry is holding off on expansion plans in the face of a murky outlook for electronics demand. The chipmaking sector saw another bout of selling in Asia, wiping at least $11.2 billion in market value amid signals that demand for servers, personal computers and mobile is falling. Also falling after hours were shares of AMD and Intel, dragging Nasdaq futures lower. "It started with Apple, then Nvidia ... Since performances of these companies set the tone for the global tech and chip industries, related Japanese stocks will likely be sluggish for a while,” said Takatoshi Itoshima, a strategist at Pictet Asset Management. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed after Fed Chairman Powell flagged his concern over potential headwinds for the U.S. economy, while the pound staged a modest rebound on reports that some pro-Brexit ministers decided to stay in their governmental posts. The pound gained as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May defied demands to quit and amid reports her environment secretary wouldn’t resign, following the resignation of several ministers Thursday. The yen rallied as trade stress simmered, with investors trying to gauge whether China and the U.S. can de-escalate their dispute. Also under water was the cryptocurrency Bitcoin, which hit a one-year trough overnight. It had tumbled 10 percent early in the week when support at $6,000 gave way. It was last changing hands at $5,500 on the Bitstamp platform. Treasuries were steady while 10-year yields on German bonds were set for their biggest weekly fall in three weeks, in a sign that the Brexit uncertainty and worries about Italy’s finances, continued to support demand. Italian bonds edged higher even as European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said in an interview with Il Sole 24 Ore that the country’s government was openly defying EU budget rules. Emerging-market currencies consolidated recent gains while oil prices extended their rebound. Oil prices rose, helped by a decline in U.S. fuel stockpiles and the possibility of a cut in OPEC output. Brent (+1.3%) and WTI (+1.1%) are both in the green and continuing their rebound seen yesterday with WTI hovering around USD 57.00bbl. Energy newsflow remains light, post-yesterday's DoE report, however, Iraq’s North Oil Co. have announced that they have resumed Kiruk oil exports heading towards the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Looking ahead, the main highlight on the calendar will be the Baker Hughes rig count. Elsewhere, natural gas futures are relatively steady after their 19% decline yesterday which came in the wake of a 20% increase the day before. In geopolitical news, US Republican and Democrat Senators filed a bipartisan bill seeking to suspend arms sales to Saudi Arabia in response to war in Yemen and killing of journalist. North Korean Leader Kim inspected test of new high-tech tactical weapons, according to Yonhap citing North Korean state media Today's data include October industrial production and capacity utilization. Viacom is among companies reporting earnings Market Snapshot
S&P500 futures down 0.3% to 2,725.25
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.01% to 358.38
MXAP down 0.2% to 151.52
MXAPJ up 0.2% to 486.84
Nikkei down 0.6% to 21,680.34
Topix down 0.6% to 1,629.30
Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 26,183.53
Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 2,679.11
Sensex up 0.5% to 35,446.11
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 5,730.55
Kospi up 0.2% to 2,092.40
Brent futures up 1.2% to $67.41/bbl
Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,216.36
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.93
German 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 0.368%
Euro up 0.2% to $1.1346
Italian 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to 3.12%
Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 1.617%
Top Overnight News
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has laid out a scenario for a pause in the central bank’s interest-rate hiking campaign sometime next year by highlighting potential headwinds to the U.S. economy.
British Prime Minister Theresa May is defying demands to quit as she battles to keep control of her fractious government long enough to deliver a Brexit deal that’s drawn ire from across the political spectrum.
Pro-Brexit ministers Michael Gove, Liam Fox, Chris Grayling, Penny Mordaunt and Andrea Leadsom have decided together not to quit the government, Times reporter Tim Shipman said on Twitter.
ECB’s Draghi sees no reason for expansion to come to abrupt end, he said at an event in Frankfurt, Germany.
PG&ECorp. rallied as much as 49 percent in extended trading Thursday after the head of the California Public Utilities Commission said he can’t imagine allowing the state’s largest utility to go into bankruptcy as it faces billions of dollars in potential liability from deadly wildfires
Deutsche Bank AG and Bank of America Corp. have been contacted by U.S. criminal investigators for information about transactions they handled for a small bank branch in Estonia that’s at the center of one of the biggest money-laundering investigations in history, according to two people familiar with the matter.
Asia-Pac stocks traded indecisively as the region lacked fresh catalysts and as uncertainty regarding Brexit and US-China trade played on investor’s minds. ASX 200 (-0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.6%) were choppy with outperformance of tech and mining names in Australia overshadowed by a lacklustre broader market, while the Japanese benchmark was subdued by mild flows into the JPY and after China Mofcom began an investigation into alleged dumping of machine tools by Japanese firms. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) swung between gains and losses after continued liquidity inaction by the PBoC which skipped OMOs for a 16th consecutive occasion, while participants were also tentative amid ongoing trade uncertainty after conflicting reports regarding the next round of China tariffs being placed on hold which USTR Lighthizer later denied. Finally, 10yr JGBs were mildly higher with prices underpinned amid an indecisive tone seen in stocks and with the BoJ also present in the market for JPY 680bln of JGBs in the belly to super-long end. Top Asian News - China’s Kindergarten Crackdown Is the Latest Disaster for Stocks - Modi Is Said to Enlist Tata for Jet Airways Rescue Ahead of Vote - Philippines Shuts 3 Miners, Suspends 9 Others After Review - Indian Central Bank Board to Discuss Surplus Funds Transfer European equities trade relatively flat (Eurostoxx 50 +0.2%) in the wake of mixed trade headlines overnight for the US and China. Performance across European indices is relatively equal whilst focus once again falls on the FTSE 100 (U/C) which remains at the whim of Brexit-inspired fluctuations in the GBP. Once again, potential upside for the index is being capped by losses in domestically focused banking names (RBS -3.0%, Lloyds -2.1%) as Brexit uncertainty continues to dampen investor sentiment. In terms of sector specifics, most sectors are trading higher with mild outperformance seen in telecom names. Utilities started the session lower in the wake of yesterday’s ECJ decision which deemed the UK’s scheme for ensuring power supplies during the winter months as a violation of state aid rules. Other individual movers include Vivendi (+4.2%) sit at the top of the Stoxx 600 after posting impressive Q3 sales metrics and announcing a potential sale of part of their Universal Music Group division. Elsewhere, AstraZeneca (-2.3%) and Shire (-1.3%) have been seen lower throughout the session after both posting disappointing drug updates. Top European News
Finnish Software Company Basware Is Said to Explore Sale
Vauxhall Owner Said to Weigh Closing a Factory Post-Brexit
Amid Brexit Gloom, Deutsche Bank Sees Frankfurt as Next London
Nyrstar Surges on Hopes Over Trafigura Refinancing Talks
GBP- The Pound is not the biggest net mover for a change, but still one of the most volatile and vulnerable as Cable pivots 1.2800 and EuGbp trades between 0.8850-80. The fall-out from Wednesday’s Cabinet meeting continues as UK PM May strives to sell the Brexit draft, but facing a rising rebellion within the Conservative Party that appears to have reached the critical mass required to trigger a no confidence vote. However, some positive news with a key Minister deciding not to follow others out of the Government, as Gove opts to stay rather than go. In terms of technical impulses, Cable is holding above yesterday’s 1.2725 low, ahead of chart support around 1.2710-00 that protects mtd and ytd troughs at 1.2696 and 1.2662 respectively, while near term resistance is seen around 1.2836 before 1.2850, but 1 bn option expiries at 1.2800 could well exert more influence into the NY cut. For EuGbp, several MAs form support blow 0.8850 and the 100 DMA at 0.8910 may hamper further gains if0.8900 is breached.
JPY- Maintaining a firm underlying safe-haven bid as broad risk sentiment remains fragile and China is reportedly investigating machine dumping by Japan – Usd/Jpy near the bottom of a 113.20-65 range.
EUCAD/CHF- All narrowly mixed vs the Greenback, with the single currency keeping afloat of 1.1300 and eyeing a Fib at 1.1358, while the Loonie is holding recent recovery gains through 1.3200 as oil prices continue their rebound and the Franc meanders between 1.0075-50 vs 1.1000+ earlier this week when the broad Dollar and DXY were in the ascendency (index well above 97.000 vs just below the figure presently).
EM- The Lira is off best levels, but still relatively bid after reports that the US could Turkish cleric Gulen in an attempt to assuage President Erdogan to adopt a less aggressive stance against Saudi Arabia over the Khashoggi killing. Usd/Try now near the middle of a 5.3240-3940 band.
In commodities, gold (+0.2%) is trading relatively flat after hitting new weekly highs of USD 1218.39/oz earlier in the session; following uneventful overnight trade. Elsewhere, Shanghai Zinc prices have risen due to London Metal Exchange stockpiles falling to decade-low levels. Brent (+1.3%) and WTI (+1.1%) are both in the green and continuing their rebound seen yesterday with WTI hovering around USD 57.00bbl. Energy newsflow remains light, post-yesterday's DoE report, however, Iraq’s North Oil Co. have announced that they have resumed Kiruk oil exports heading towards the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Looking ahead, the main highlight on the calendar will be the Baker Hughes rig count. Elsewhere, natural gas futures are relatively steady after their 19% decline yesterday which came in the wake of a 20% increase the day before. US Event Calendar
9:15am: Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%; Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 11, prior 8
4pm: Total Net TIC Flows, prior $108.2b, Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior $131.8b
Date: 2018 July 10 Road to Financial Success Same goal, same dream we can walk together. Market Overview Today july 10, 2018 almost all cryptocurrency have been going down, and they are declining by 5% to 10% even some of then are declined by 15%. We haven’t seen most value down even after monday hacked with Bancor. Yesterday, Road to financial Success reported that the Cryptocurrency market cap was around the 273 Billion but now the market cap going down to 253.27 Billion. According to the Bancor Twitter tweet they said on the morning of july 9: “This morning (CEST) Bancor experienced a security breach. No user wallets were compromised. To complete the investigation, we have moved to maintenance and will be releasing a more detailed report shortly. We look forward to being back online as soon as possible.” They also provide recent update on the Bancor attack by the hacker. Lets see what they are saying about security breach on their System. “Earlier today, at approximately 00:00 UTC, Bancor experienced a security breach. We take this incident very seriously. We are committing every resource to resolving it, getting the network back online and tracking down the criminals involved. The details of the breach are still being investigated, but we wanted to update the community with the facts that we have so far. A wallet used to upgrade some smart contracts was compromised. This compromised wallet was then used to withdraw ETC from the BNT smart contract in the amount of 24,984 ETH (Around $12.5M). The same wallet also stole: 229,356,645 NPXS (Around $1M) 3,200,000 BNT (Around $10M) Once the theft was identified, we were able to freeze the stolen BNT, limiting the damage to the Bancor ecosystem from the theft. The ability to freeze token was built into the Bancor Protocol to be used in an extreme situation to recover from a security breach, allowing Bancor to effectively stop the thief from running away with the stolen tokens. It is not possible to freeze the ETH or any other stolen tokens. However, we are now working together with dozens of cryptocurrency exchanges to trace the stolen fund and make it more difficult for the thief to liquidate them. We will continue to post updates as and when appropriate on our telegram channel and on twitter. We appreciate your patience as we resolve this matter.” This is the information from the bancor. https://preview.redd.it/l23610rxm4911.jpg?width=626&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0b72744b44da2113abe851ddbde2a8fc9eb348fe Picture: Small Screen shot of Bancor Update in Twitter. Ethereum Price At the time of writing, the Ethereum price is sitting at $437.44 USD representing a loss of 9.95% in the last 24 Hours. More than 1.5 Billion worth of ETH were exchanged in the multiple market. We have not seen a Lots of declined for the Ethereum even bancor hacked or security breach in their system. https://preview.redd.it/hasjraxym4911.png?width=1440&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea2a94fb7759bc45fc1fe92407b529a698ca70cc Picture: Ethereum Price for the last 24 Hours. Bitcoin The bitcoin price is sitting at $6,393.12 USD representing a loss of 5.91% in the last 24 Hours. In the last 1 days the price of Bitcoin are declined from around $ 6,960 USD To around $6,240 USD. The market Capitalization of the Bitcoin were wiped out from 116 Billion USD to 109 Billion USD in one days. The main reason found that the hacked of the Bancro System. https://preview.redd.it/folmr8c0n4911.png?width=1440&format=png&auto=webp&s=0771ca81c42e6b59fcf3c54dc594098dc8bab43b Picture: Bitcoin price chart in of 24 hours. Alt Coin Ripple XRP, the third largest coin are in the downtrend it lost 5.64% in the span 24 Hours Currently sitting at 45 cent USD. Bitcoin cash declined by the 6.83% currency sitting at $700 USD. The big Loser are EOS, lose around 13%, currently sitting at $7.46 USD. MIOTA (IOTA), LOSE 10.01% currently sitting at $0.971701 USD. QTUM, OMG, ONT, ICON and some other are declined by huge %. Market Capitalization The total market cap of the all cryptocurrency are 254 Billion USD. The total market Capitalization are declined by around 20 Billion USD. Yesterday, Road to Financial Success reported that the Total Market Cap was around 273$ and it declined to the 254 Billion, it is expected that the Market cap will declined more because of Lots of Security breach with Bancor and some small Project. The Regulation might be the another small reason to declined for the cryptocurrency. https://preview.redd.it/okm5l2e1n4911.png?width=1440&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb234aaaba571a212b98257c5cf9dbd37f146d7a Picture: Total Market cap in 1 Days for all Cryptocurrency. Shares Comsec Let’s talk about the Share market in australia. Todays Most gainers were JHL(Jayex Healthcare Ltd) it gain 130%, currently sitting at $ 0.068 AUD, CDH, CAD they were also top gainer. For Tomorrow, You can look into the ROG, IP1, PKL, OEX, XPE, MOX and WGL as well but remember that Penny stock is very dangerous, so that you should be aware that you might lose all your investment. Next Share to watch Could be the White Rock Minerals LTD (ASX: WRM) because of it’s just broke the resisten level, so that this could be good Entry for long term investment. https://preview.redd.it/gclje193n4911.jpg?width=1029&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0965be2092c9ba13de6b300c36697a82cd5fa7d1 Picture: Picture of WRM, it just broke the resistant level this could be good entry for you. Final Word, It’s seem that the Cryptocurrency are downtrend so that it better to wait, if someone want to add in to their investment. The more negative news are coming out so investor and trader needs to wait till good news came out after good news came out in market they can add into their position. They can catch trend. Want to contact: https://www.facebook.com/Cointrader2017/ Facebook Group https://www.facebook.com/groups/171126873609826/ Link to make a Coinbase Account: https://www.coinbase.com/join/59af6e9fc308a500a8f9bf45 Twitter https://twitter.com/RoadtoFC Contact us: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
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